![]() All projections are based on open ocean basin changes that are extrapolated to the coastline (which does not include explicit modelling of shallow water effects).įor long-term decisions that may be influenced by sea-level changes, the precautionary principle would indicate using the 95 th percentile values of the high-emission (RCP 8.5) scenario. An additional Enhanced Scenario is also available, described below. For each scenario, lower, median and upper estimates of projected relative sea-level change are provided, corresponding to the 5 th, 50 th and 95 th percentiles of the full ensemble of Global Climate Models. Conversely, other Canadian coastlines, where the land is rising faster than the ocean, such as Hudson Bay and much of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, can expect a relative sea-level fall.ĭata estimates are available for three RCP scenarios: RCP 2.6 (low), RCP 4.5 (medium), and RCP 8.5 (high) – as reported in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5 Church et al, 2013a,b). Some Canadian coastlines in Atlantic Canada can expect relative sea-level rise that is larger than the projected global sea-level rise. Relative sea-level change along Canada’s coastlines varies greatly from location to location, and can differ substantially from the projected global average sea-level change. Relative sea-level change varies greatly based on where you live in Canada When combined with other types of data such as estimates of storm surge, waves, tides, and additional local-scale vertical land motion, such as subsidence on river deltas, this relative sea-level data is expected to contribute significantly to coastal flood risk assessments and adaptation decision-making. Use relative sea-level rise data together with other types of data The data is available for the three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emissions scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5) and an enhanced scenario. Projections are available at a resolution of 0.1° (approximately 11 km latitude, 2-8 km longitude), and for 2006 and every decade from 2010-2100, relative to 1986-2005 conditions. It is a combined measure of both changes to ocean levels due to climate change and vertical land movements, as described below. The dataset provides projections for relative sea-level change, which is the change in ocean height relative to land and is the apparent sea-level change experienced by coastal communities and ecosystems. To help Canadians plan, prepare for, and remain resilient to projected sea-level changes, Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) has developed a new dataset of present and future relative sea-levels (James et al., 2021). Projections of Relative Sea-Level Change (developed by Natural Resources Canada)
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